Assessment, Statistics, and Research

  The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two previous numbers. The sequence starts with 0 and 1, and then continues with 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and so on. The number of leaves on a plant or the number of branches on a tree will often follow the Fibonacci sequence. Robert G. Sacco (2013) developed the Fibonacci Life Chart Method (FLCM) and applied it to Erikson’s eight developmental stages (1982). Sacco presented a revised age-stage chart. Following is a quote from Sacco’s discussion (p. 143). The results of this study provide support for the assumption of an eight-stage theory of development. The FLCM serves several useful functions. These include: (a) substantially improving understanding of the eight developmental life stages proposed by Erikson, and (b) the use of it as a tool for timing of interventions.     References Erikson, E. H. (1982). The life cycle completed . New York: Norton. Sacco, R. G. (2013). Re-envi...

  This stunning chart is worth a look by all those who present data at conferences or in classes.  The source of this chart and four more useful charts is an article on inflation by Flowers and Siegel of the Washington Post 10 June 2022. I recommend a look at the other charts as well. An additional comment. Charts about economic issues like the cost of food and energy are also about human behavior. People raise prices and people pay more for what they need or want. Too often we separate the cost of things from what people are doing. I write about presenting data using charts in Creating Surveys. Buy Creating Surveys  on GOOGLE BOOKS   AMAZON Links to Connections Checkout My Website     www.suttong.com    See my Books    AMAZON             GOOGLE STORE   FOLLOW me on     FACEBOOK     Geoff W. Sutton            TWIT...

  Graphic from  Pewresearch 2021 Pew Researchers have a great deal of experience in asking people questions. Formulating a good question for a survey is an important place to begin. However, another lesson from Pew is the additional data they gather. I noticed a large graphic illustrating how people in different groups answered one question. When conducting survey research it is critical to consider what we need to know about the people responding to a question or item to understand the meaning of their response. Consider Pew's survey item with two choices: "most things in society...      Can be pretty clearly divided into good and evil      Are too complicated to be divided into good and evil The graphic shows how different groups responded and allows for comparisons on the two ways to respond. Later, in the article, they compare political affiliations, which in the US means Republican and Democrat. This is worth studying as well. The article is ...

 In a previous post, I reported the value of reporting polling data using averages of many polls for the leading candidates. I mentioned that national polls are interesting but the US chooses a president based on the electoral college. Because the electors are chosen by states, it makes sense to predict winners by observing how the population of a state is likely to vote and thereby decide how many electors "won" by a candidate. This assumes an elector does not go rogue and vote for their preferred candidate. This map can of course change with every new poll, but has the potential for a more accurate prediction than charts of national polls. The chart map video is from NBC News . How do you create map charts? Microsoft Excel has you covered-- see Create a Map chart in Excel .   In Excel, you will find the map option labeled Geography under the Data tab. You can download examples with several map charts from Microsoft . Learn more about surveys in Creating Surveys available o...

An excellent example of presenting two sets of data from multiple sources over time can be found in the presentation of polling data on FiveThirtyEight .* The point of  this post is to identify a useful way to present data from multiple sources over time. The charts are continually updated as data from new polls are received*. The data for each of the two main candidates are plotted and a trend line shows the averages for each candidate. From left to right we see the progress based on the dates of each poll. Notes about the chart and the data 1. Percentages can be averaged and yield a meaningful and easy way to interpret multiple sets of data. 2. The narrowing and widening of the trend lines offers a quick glance at what is happening for each candidate or data source. 3. Averaging polls from multiple sources helps avoid bias due to emphasizing preferred outcomes. 4. Below the chart are tables of data showing important information useful to research methods    4.1 Dates ar...

Tracking polls are useful for evaluating changes in attitudes overtime. A simple yet effective approach is to plot the percentages of people responding in one of two ways each time you collect data. In the example from the Washington Post-ABC News poll, the pollsters collected opinions of the public on the way the president was handling the coronavirus outbreak. By connecting the data points with different colored lines, the change is evident at a quick glance. If you are interested in this particular subject, see the article by Clement and Balz, The Washington Post, July 17, 2020. READ MORE about surveys and charts in Creating Surveys on AMAZON and other stores worldwide. Links to Connections My Page      www.suttong.com    My Books   AMAZON           and             GOOGLE STORE   FOLLOW   FACEBOOK   ...

The vertical bar chart is a useful method to show comparisons provided the data are accurate. The following chart presents data for three large major race groups in the US. Chart from Statista for August 2020-  See their page for current data, charts, and additional resources. According to the US census, the estimated population of the US in 2019 was 328,239,523. The estimated and rounded percentages of the major groups are:   White 77%   Black/ African American 13%   Hispanic/Latino 18% According to Statista.com , police shootings (to death) of Whites declined between 2017-2019, dropped then increased for Blacks, and for Hispanics. Considering the small percentage of the population for Blacks and Hispanics, they fare worse than do Whites. See the statisca chart. Here's the link to the Statista chart . Ad Learn more about creating surveys, including calculating and reporting statistics in  Creating Surveys on AMAZON    or...

We have an evident decrease on weekly deaths for the 7-days ending May 15 2020. Downward progress (green columns) resumed after the May 8 increase (yellow column). Legend M21 to A25 and M1 represent the Month and Day. The numbers below the dates are for the 7-days including the date. For example, M1 = 11,989 deaths in the 7-days before and including May 1, 2020. The first M dates are for March, then A for the April dates, then back to May again for M1 and so forth. The data are beginning to look like a bell curve, but with many states allowing more freedom of movement, it is too early to tell if there will be a rise in a week or two. The data are from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths I use the download data file and create the chart in Excel. Read more about statistics in these two books. Creating Surveys  on   AMAZON Read more about basic statistics in  APPLIED STATISTICS: CONCEPTS FOR COUNSELOR...

We have a slight increase on weekly deaths for the 7-days ending May 8 2020. Downward progress (green columns) has halted. Legend M21 to A25 and M1 represent the Monty and Day. The numbers below the dates are for the 7-days including the date. For example, M1 = 11,989 deaths in the 7-days before and including May 1, 2020. The first M dates are for March, then A for the April dates. The data are beginning to look like a bell curve, but with many states allowing more freedom of movement, it is too early to tell if there will be a rise in a week or two. The data are from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths I use the download data file and create the chart in Excel. Read more about statistics in these two books. Creating Surveys  on   AMAZON Read more about basic statistics in  APPLIED STATISTICS: CONCEPTS FOR COUNSELORS  at AMAZON Connections Follow this blog My Page ...

Are we there yet? The most recent weekly data suggest a downward move in the number of people who died in the past week. In the previous chart, there appeared to be a channel or range between 1800 and 2000 per day with some anomalies. Now that we have more data, it is possible to group the data. I am avoiding curves and means because it is not clear that there is a curve or that the data are normally distributed. The bar chart offers a clear picture of rapid increase and possibly (and hopefully a decline. In this chart, I used weekly totals beginning with March 7, 2020 (M = March, A = April). Important note: The numbers may be revised. This chart is for educational purposes only and not for planning. Here is my source for the data   https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths Date               Deaths M21 213 M28 1447 A4 5450 A11 11620 A18 18277 A25 ...

How will we know if opening up the country is safe? My bottom line answer is when people stop dying from Covid-19. But tracking actual deaths can help us know whether we are making progress or not. We can measure progress against our own baseline. The chart provides an estimate of a baseline, which will need to be corrected when additional deaths are recorded. Think of the baseline as a channel. The national US baseline appears to be in the range of 1800 to 2000 with some outliers starting 8 April 2020. I am not using averages because the data are not obviously normalized. I prefer to look at a range of relatively stable values, which can be called a channel. The sharp deviations have to be ignored to get a sense of what is "typical" of a pattern. A new relatively stable range above or below this range should help us determine a new trend. If the numbers are corrected, we will need to revisit the range. I am looking at a move of about 20% either way for evi...