Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Charting Dual Average Percentages as Linear Trends

An excellent example of presenting two sets of data from multiple sources over time can be found in the presentation of polling data on FiveThirtyEight.*

The point of  this post is to identify a useful way to present data from multiple sources over time.



The charts are continually updated as data from new polls are received*. The data for each of the two main candidates are plotted and a trend line shows the averages for each candidate. From left to right we see the progress based on the dates of each poll.

Notes about the chart and the data

1. Percentages can be averaged and yield a meaningful and easy way to interpret multiple sets of data.
2. The narrowing and widening of the trend lines offers a quick glance at what is happening for each candidate or data source.
3. Averaging polls from multiple sources helps avoid bias due to emphasizing preferred outcomes.
4. Below the chart are tables of data showing important information useful to research methods
   4.1 Dates are listed and are clearly important as events can change what happens.
   4.2 The data source is listed, which adds to confidence that we are not dealing with hidden data.
   4.3 The size of the sample is important to determine accuracy.
   4.4 The type of sample is important. So, LV = likely voters is more important to voting outcomes than is a general population sample. Other types of samples are listed.
   4.5 The results are listed along with the difference presented as a net result. On this day Biden was 8 points ahead of Trump.

It is worth noting in polls like this that events can change the trend. That is, just because Biden is consistently ahead of Trump does not mean this will be true later in the year. Also, it is important to remember that in the US, the popular vote does not determine who wins in a close election. As in 2016, the president won the electoral vote but lost the popular vote. Thus, polling based on electoral votes will be more useful for predicting election outcomes.

*Nate Silver is the founder of the website FiveThirtyEight. The story of Nate Silver's excellent predictions can be found in The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't

**Data Note that, in science writing, the word data takes a plural verb so, "data are" not "data is." To refer to a single unit of data, use the word datum. See dictionary.com In nonscience writing, data has been used as singular or plural.

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Cite this blog post

Sutton, G.W. (2020, July 28). Charting Dual Average Percentages as Linear Trends. Assessment, Statistics, & Research. https://statistics.suttong.com /2020/07/charting-dual-average-percentages-as.html



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Friday, July 17, 2020

How to Report Results of a Tracking Poll

Tracking polls are useful for evaluating changes in attitudes overtime. A simple yet effective approach is to plot the percentages of people responding in one of two ways each time you collect data.



In the example from the Washington Post-ABC News poll, the pollsters collected opinions of the public on the way the president was handling the coronavirus outbreak. By connecting the data points with different colored lines, the change is evident at a quick glance.

If you are interested in this particular subject, see the article by Clement and Balz, The Washington Post, July 17, 2020.


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Wednesday, July 15, 2020

POLICE SHOOTINGS and the RACE FACTOR



The US president caused a stir when he responded to a journalist question about police violence claiming that more white Americans are killed by police than are black Americans (Montanero, 2020).

Is the president right?

The correct answer deals with how you view the available data.

Yes, if you count the  number of people killed by police. But keep reading.

No, if you consider the rate of killing compared to the small percentage of Blacks in the US.

So, what are the facts? (Source = Washington Post July 14, 2020)

Number of people killed by police by race category

Whites 2,499
Blacks 1,301
Hispanic 907
Other 220

Now consider the population sizes in millions
Whites 197
Blacks 42
Hispanic 39
Other 49

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As you can see, Blacks are killed at a far higher rate than are whites, but more Whites are killed than Blacks. Unfortunately, discussions of race have become politicized.

You can see the bar charts at the WP link. Here's what a pie chart looks like when you chart people killed per million.



Also, the focus on police killings creates prejudice against police as a group, which can undermine their effectiveness. Obviously, a healthy society cannot overlook police violence, but it is important to be careful not to stereotype police as violent people.

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Wednesday, July 1, 2020

Progress in Covid 19 Deaths




DATA SOURCE = https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths



The number of people dying from COVID-19 has declined since the second half of April. Because we now have so many data points, I plotted half months rather than 7-day periods as before.

Note that March and May have an extra day in the second half compared to April and June.

I hope that the recent surge in hospitalizations in some US states do not mean a return to higher death counts. Of course, the symptoms can be severe for some survivors. Nevertheless, the death rate is in decline.



We are seeing far more infections compared to European nations, which are now going to work and open for international travel. Resistance to safety recommendations appears high in some crowded areas like beaches in the US.

The European data suggest what could happen for the US if people would voluntarily follow the scientific guidance about quality masks, safe distances, and hand washing. Avoiding close contact with infected persons appears to work--of course, since we do not know who are asymptomatic carriers, precautions remain.


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Presenting Split Opinions in a Color Chart

  This color chart by Pew Research   published 10 September 2020, reveals a useful way to depict split opinions of a study. Here are a few o...