Assessment, Statistics, and Research

 FBI Reports Data Active Shooters 2019 FBI Report Several aspects of the FBI reports can help students, faculty, and leaders in presenting important data to the public. 1. On page 3 they define what they mean by an "active shooter." And they clarify that the report does not include all gun-related shootings. 2. Page 4 uses a two-color strategy to compare two years (2019, 2018) side by side. The selection of numbers to compare seems reasonable to understand what is going on. 3. Page 5 tells us where the shootings take place using a color-coded map. It offers a clear look though the selection of green may not be the best color when the gray areas are the "safe zones" where no shootings took place. See photo at the top of this page. 4. The graphics on page 7 offer a helpful illustration of ways to present information to the general public. We see data, graphic comparisons, and clear colors that help differences stand out. Reference link to FBI 2019 Report Permission to...

 In a previous post, I reported the value of reporting polling data using averages of many polls for the leading candidates. I mentioned that national polls are interesting but the US chooses a president based on the electoral college. Because the electors are chosen by states, it makes sense to predict winners by observing how the population of a state is likely to vote and thereby decide how many electors "won" by a candidate. This assumes an elector does not go rogue and vote for their preferred candidate. This map can of course change with every new poll, but has the potential for a more accurate prediction than charts of national polls. The chart map video is from NBC News . How do you create map charts? Microsoft Excel has you covered-- see Create a Map chart in Excel .   In Excel, you will find the map option labeled Geography under the Data tab. You can download examples with several map charts from Microsoft . Learn more about surveys in Creating Surveys available o...

Tracking polls are useful for evaluating changes in attitudes overtime. A simple yet effective approach is to plot the percentages of people responding in one of two ways each time you collect data. In the example from the Washington Post-ABC News poll, the pollsters collected opinions of the public on the way the president was handling the coronavirus outbreak. By connecting the data points with different colored lines, the change is evident at a quick glance. If you are interested in this particular subject, see the article by Clement and Balz, The Washington Post, July 17, 2020. READ MORE about surveys and charts in Creating Surveys on AMAZON and other stores worldwide. Links to Connections My Page      www.suttong.com    My Books   AMAZON           and             GOOGLE STORE   FOLLOW   FACEBOOK   ...

DATA SOURCE =  https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths The number of people dying from COVID-19 has declined since the second half of April. Because we now have so many data points, I plotted half months rather than 7-day periods as before. Note that March and May have an extra day in the second half compared to April and June. I hope that the recent surge in hospitalizations in some US states do not mean a return to higher death counts. Of course, the symptoms can be severe for some survivors. Nevertheless, the death rate is in decline. We are seeing far more infections compared to European nations, which are now going to work and open for international travel. Resistance to safety recommendations appears high in some crowded areas like beaches in the US. The European data suggest what could happen for the US if people would voluntarily follow the scientific guidance about quality masks, safe distances, and hand washing. Avoiding close contact with infected per...

The vertical bar chart is a useful method to show comparisons provided the data are accurate. The following chart presents data for three large major race groups in the US. Chart from Statista for August 2020-  See their page for current data, charts, and additional resources. According to the US census, the estimated population of the US in 2019 was 328,239,523. The estimated and rounded percentages of the major groups are:   White 77%   Black/ African American 13%   Hispanic/Latino 18% According to Statista.com , police shootings (to death) of Whites declined between 2017-2019, dropped then increased for Blacks, and for Hispanics. Considering the small percentage of the population for Blacks and Hispanics, they fare worse than do Whites. See the statisca chart. Here's the link to the Statista chart . Ad Learn more about creating surveys, including calculating and reporting statistics in  Creating Surveys on AMAZON    or...

If the posted data are accurate, we have an evident decrease on weekly deaths for the 7-days ending May 22 2020, which is the far right column. That is two weeks of decline and much lower than the April 18 column. The bad news is of course that the US has reached 100,000 deaths. Legend M21 to A25 and M1 represent the Month and Day. The numbers below the dates are for the 7-days including the date. For example, M1 = 11,989 deaths in the 7-days before and including May 1, 2020. The first M dates are for March, then A for the April dates, then back to May again for M1 and so forth. The data are beginning to look like a bell curve, but with many states allowing more freedom of movement, it is too early to tell if there will be a rise in a week or two. The data are from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths I use the download data file and create the chart in Excel. Read more about statistics in these two books. Creating Surveys...

We have an evident decrease on weekly deaths for the 7-days ending May 15 2020. Downward progress (green columns) resumed after the May 8 increase (yellow column). Legend M21 to A25 and M1 represent the Month and Day. The numbers below the dates are for the 7-days including the date. For example, M1 = 11,989 deaths in the 7-days before and including May 1, 2020. The first M dates are for March, then A for the April dates, then back to May again for M1 and so forth. The data are beginning to look like a bell curve, but with many states allowing more freedom of movement, it is too early to tell if there will be a rise in a week or two. The data are from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths I use the download data file and create the chart in Excel. Read more about statistics in these two books. Creating Surveys  on   AMAZON Read more about basic statistics in  APPLIED STATISTICS: CONCEPTS FOR COUNSELOR...

We have a slight increase on weekly deaths for the 7-days ending May 8 2020. Downward progress (green columns) has halted. Legend M21 to A25 and M1 represent the Monty and Day. The numbers below the dates are for the 7-days including the date. For example, M1 = 11,989 deaths in the 7-days before and including May 1, 2020. The first M dates are for March, then A for the April dates. The data are beginning to look like a bell curve, but with many states allowing more freedom of movement, it is too early to tell if there will be a rise in a week or two. The data are from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths I use the download data file and create the chart in Excel. Read more about statistics in these two books. Creating Surveys  on   AMAZON Read more about basic statistics in  APPLIED STATISTICS: CONCEPTS FOR COUNSELORS  at AMAZON Connections Follow this blog My Page ...

 Covid- 19 Weekly Chart of US deaths. Legend M21 to A25 and M1 represent the Month and Day. The numbers below the dates are for the 7-days including the date. For example, M1 = 11,989 deaths in the 7-days before and including May 1, 2020. The first M dates are for March, then A for the April dates. The data are beginning to look like a bell curve, but with many states allowing more freedom of movement, it is too early to tell if there will be a rise in a week or two. The data are from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths I use the download data file and create the chart in Excel. Read more about statistics in these two books. Creating Surveys  on   AMAZON Read more about basic statistics in  APPLIED STATISTICS: CONCEPTS FOR COUNSELORS  at AMAZON Connections Follow this blog My Page      www.suttong.com My Books     AMAZON ...

How will we know if opening up the country is safe? My bottom line answer is when people stop dying from Covid-19. But tracking actual deaths can help us know whether we are making progress or not. We can measure progress against our own baseline. The chart provides an estimate of a baseline, which will need to be corrected when additional deaths are recorded. Think of the baseline as a channel. The national US baseline appears to be in the range of 1800 to 2000 with some outliers starting 8 April 2020. I am not using averages because the data are not obviously normalized. I prefer to look at a range of relatively stable values, which can be called a channel. The sharp deviations have to be ignored to get a sense of what is "typical" of a pattern. A new relatively stable range above or below this range should help us determine a new trend. If the numbers are corrected, we will need to revisit the range. I am looking at a move of about 20% either way for evi...