Showing posts with label probability of death. Show all posts
Showing posts with label probability of death. Show all posts

Sunday, March 29, 2020

Death and Treatment Need Statistics 2020 Pandemic

Statistical models are needed to guide government leaders and health service providers concerned with maximizing the number of infected people who survive and providing high quality care to those in need.

All models have multiple assumptions. In the midst of a pandemic such as Covid-19, new data are constantly being processed. Thus, parameters will need to be changed as new data change the models. Multiple outcomes must be considered without biased interpretations favoring either lower or higher estimates.

NYT 13 March 2020 reported by Sheri Fink

This report refers to four scenarios and is early than the ones further down the page.

"Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die." 25 March 2020 research paper submitted for peer review.

This document can be downloaded for careful study. The authors detail their assumptions and provide charts and tables indicating projected deaths and needs for various resources such as ICU beds and ventilators. The data are for the US as a whole as well as for each state. Figure 9 projects the cumulative deaths plotted by month and the range from low to high is wide. They estimate 81 thousand deaths over the next four months. Again, the estimate is subject to a wide margin of statistical error. For most states, peak hospital needs are projected to occur in April (See Table 1).

Dr. Fauci March 29 2020 also in Slate

According to Taylor Hatmaker writing for Techcrunch, Dr. Fauci estimated between 100,000 to 200,000 deaths from Covid-19.

Bases for Comparison
For the USA

  Number of deaths  = 2,913,503 (population in 2018 = 327.2 million)
  Life expectancy = 78.6 years (This will vary with various parameters)
  Influenza and Pneumonia deaths = 55,672 
         Note: 7 conditions cause more deaths according to the CDC 

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Monday, March 16, 2020

Life expectancy and lifespan assessment in psychology

Lifespan is not the same concept as life expectancy.

Lifespan is the maximum period of time a species lives. The human lifespan is measured in years. As of 2020, the documented human lifespan is 122 years (see also lifespan concept in psychological science).

Life expectancy is the average period of time a member of a population with certain characteristics lives. Human life expectancy, measured in years, varies by sex and environment. Human life expectancy varies by the age group. For example, life expectancy of people at birth will be different from a group of people who are alive at age 70.

United Nations data are reported by sex and country. Overall, there has been an increase in human life expectancy on a worldwide basis between 1950 (47.0 years) and 2020 (73.2 years; worldometers). I have rounded the numbers which were reported up to two decimal places.

Examples of recent life expectancy data for wealthy nations reveal marked differences compared to other nations.

Data from the United Nations -- see the full chart and details at  worldometers.

Life expectancy of laboratory animals varies with the species and strains of the species. The life expectancy of rats and mice is measured in days.

Life expectancy data are also reported in life tables. Period life tables are available from the US Social Security program (Social Security Administration; SSA). These tables organize data by age group and sex. SSA also provides downloadable reports. The tables also give the probability of death for men and women. The tables are available based on historical data as well as estimates of the future (for examples, see  ssa).

SSA has a life expectancy calculator based on gender and age (ssa calculator). The results provide an estimate, but they note that the estimate does not consider such relevant factors as health, lifestyle and family history.

Death rates are usually reported by sex, year or time period, and per 100,000 people in a population. According to US Social Security study 120 in the year 2000, people died at the rate of 867 per 100,000 but this varied by age group. Under age 65s died at 243 and over 65s at 5,261. The data were different for men and women. For those over age 65, 6458 men died compared to 4,530 women ( Note- I have rounded the numbers.

Cite This Blog Post

Sutton, G.W. (2020, March 16). Life expectancy and lifespan assessment in psychology Assessment, Statistics, & Research. 2020/03/life-expectancy-and-lifespan-assessment.html

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