Sunday, March 29, 2020

Death and Treatment Need Statistics 2020 Pandemic



Statistical models are needed to guide government leaders and health service providers concerned with maximizing the number of infected people who survive and providing high quality care to those in need.

All models have multiple assumptions. In the midst of a pandemic such as Covid-19, new data are constantly being processed. Thus, parameters will need to be changed as new data change the models. Multiple outcomes must be considered without biased interpretations favoring either lower or higher estimates.

NYT 13 March 2020 reported by Sheri Fink

This report refers to four scenarios and is early than the ones further down the page.

"Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die."

HealthData.org 25 March 2020 research paper submitted for peer review.

This document can be downloaded for careful study. The authors detail their assumptions and provide charts and tables indicating projected deaths and needs for various resources such as ICU beds and ventilators. The data are for the US as a whole as well as for each state. Figure 9 projects the cumulative deaths plotted by month and the range from low to high is wide. They estimate 81 thousand deaths over the next four months. Again, the estimate is subject to a wide margin of statistical error. For most states, peak hospital needs are projected to occur in April (See Table 1).

Dr. Fauci March 29 2020 also in Slate

According to Taylor Hatmaker writing for Techcrunch, Dr. Fauci estimated between 100,000 to 200,000 deaths from Covid-19.

Bases for Comparison
For the USA

  Number of deaths  = 2,913,503 (population in 2018 = 327.2 million)
  Life expectancy = 78.6 years (This will vary with various parameters)
  Influenza and Pneumonia deaths = 55,672 
         Note: 7 conditions cause more deaths according to the CDC 

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