Assessment, Statistics, and Research

DATA SOURCE =  https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths The number of people dying from COVID-19 has declined since the second half of April. Because we now have so many data points, I plotted half months rather than 7-day periods as before. Note that March and May have an extra day in the second half compared to April and June. I hope that the recent surge in hospitalizations in some US states do not mean a return to higher death counts. Of course, the symptoms can be severe for some survivors. Nevertheless, the death rate is in decline. We are seeing far more infections compared to European nations, which are now going to work and open for international travel. Resistance to safety recommendations appears high in some crowded areas like beaches in the US. The European data suggest what could happen for the US if people would voluntarily follow the scientific guidance about quality masks, safe distances, and hand washing. Avoiding close contact with infected persons

Are we there yet? The most recent weekly data suggest a downward move in the number of people who died in the past week. In the previous chart, there appeared to be a channel or range between 1800 and 2000 per day with some anomalies. Now that we have more data, it is possible to group the data. I am avoiding curves and means because it is not clear that there is a curve or that the data are normally distributed. The bar chart offers a clear picture of rapid increase and possibly (and hopefully a decline. In this chart, I used weekly totals beginning with March 7, 2020 (M = March, A = April). Important note: The numbers may be revised. This chart is for educational purposes only and not for planning. Here is my source for the data   https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths Date               Deaths M21 213 M28 1447 A4 5450 A11 11620 A18 18277 A25 13963 Read more about statistics in

We can learn a lot about presenting survey results by looking at what experts do. The scientists at Pew Research presented findings from a Christmas in America survey . Take a look at their work. 1. Focus on highlights. For general audiences, select the most important facts. For example, it is no big news to say over 90% of Christian Americans celebrate Christmas. But to learn there’s a drop in celebrating Christmas as a religious rather than a cultural holiday is news (46% down from 51% in 2013). It’s also interesting to learn that younger persons are lower on the religious emphasis than are older adults. Of course, to focus on highlights, you have to create good survey questions in the first place. So, check out the items Pew reports to make their findings more meaningful (e.g., include age groups and religious affiliation in your survey). 2. Use percentages and graphics to depict trends. On fact 2, “Merry Christmas” or “Happy Holidays,” Pew shows a change

The chart based on data from CDC 2015 provides an example of tracking three trends over time. The bars indicate the percentage of births to unmarried women. The upper teal line represents the median age at first marriage and the orange broken line indicates median age at first birth. Notice the "crossover" of the two lines referring to first birth and first marriage. Note also the stabalized trend for births to unmarried women easily visible on the bar portion of the chart. About 40% of women are unmarried when their children are born. You can read text related to the story at the BGSU weblink:   https://www.bgsu.edu/ncfmr/resources/data/family-profiles/eickmeyer-payne-brown-manning-crossover-age-first-marriage-birth-fp-17-22.html Creating Surveys Available from  AMAZON Applied Statistics: Concepts for Counselors Available from  AMAZON Connect Geoffrey W. Sutton www.suttong.com Facebook Twitter @GeoffWSutton YouTube